With twice India’s per capita income and huge reserves of the very minerals required for the green technology revolution globally underway, Indonesia’s importance is immense and only likely to increase.
Authors
Mohsin Raza Khan, Associate Professor, Jindal School of International Affairs, O.P. Jindal Global University, Sonipat, Haryana, India.
Summary
Last month, Indonesia saw a change of guard from the presidency of Joko Widodo (Jokowi) to that of former army general Prabowo Subianto, and this week news reports suggest that India may extend an invitation to him as the chief guest of our Republic Day Parade, making this a good time to take stock of the country.
Indonesia, which is both secular and democratic — though it has seen democratic back sliding over the recent past — is courted intensely by both China and the United States, and yet remains non-aligned. There are several reasons why this fulcrum of the Indo-Pacific is considered a critical swing state.
Firstly, Indonesia sits astride all the major straits between the Indian and Pacific oceans — Malacca, Sunda, Lambok, Ombai Wetar, and Timor. Not only are these critical for carrying 60% of global sea borne trade but only two of these — Ombai Wetar and Timor — are deep enough for nuclear submarines to pass undetected.
With twice India’s per capita income, a quarter of its population of 280 million under the age of 15, the fastest growing online economy in South East Asia, and huge reserves of the very minerals required for the green technology revolution globally underway, Indonesia’s importance is immense and only likely to increase.
This has prompted billions of dollars in FDI from the Chinese in projects ranging from mineral processing to high-speed railways, but despite being a major recipient of Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) investments Indonesia’s population remains deeply suspicious of China. Nonetheless, because of their integration with the Chinese economy, none of the ASEAN nations wants to abandon their relationship with China in favour of the US, since that would mean a massive cut in their GDPs.
Published in: Deccan Herald
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