Incessant conflicts in multiple theatres will stretch geopolitics to breaking point with serious repercussions for the emerging world order.
Author
Mohan Kumar, Professor & Dean, Strategic and International Initiatives, O.P. Jindal Global University, Sonipat, Haryana, India.
Summary
The outsized influence of geopolitics on diplomacy, foreign and security policy has been the dominant feature of the past few years, and it is likely to stay that way for the foreseeable future
The global strategic landscape at present defies description. Words such as “polycrisis”, “black swan” and “cataclysm” are thrown about by scholars, yet each one of them is promptly rendered obsolete by the next emerging crisis. Not so long ago it was the pandemic, just yesterday it was the war in Ukraine, and today it is the imbroglio in Gaza. This level and scale of cascading strategic turbulence is truly unprecedented.
The above conundrum poses serious challenges to politicians and diplomats alike. The first implication of this is that policy makers can only think of tactical responses to events and there is simply no time to conceive of strategic policy responses. Second, most countries simply do not have the strategic bandwidth to deal with multiple crises all at once. Even the most preeminent global power, namely, the US, suffers from this disability. Third, the cumulative impact of the multiple crises is to introduce an element of instability and unpredictability in the world order seldom seen before. Finally, at a time when international organisations are needed like never before, they have simply not risen to the challenge. This is as true of the United Nations Security Council as it is of the Bretton Woods Institutions or indeed the World Trade Organization. There is a structural deficit when it comes to global cooperation.
The outsized influence of geopolitics on diplomacy, foreign and security policy has been the dominant feature of the past few years, and it is likely to stay that way for the foreseeable future. This means that the world order, such as it is, may fracture even further leading to discrete blocs.
Published in: Hindustan Times
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