Inflation targeting has improved monetary policy transmission in India, but its effectiveness was limited during the COVID-19 pandemic.
Author
Dony Alex, Associate Professor, O.P. Jindal Global University, Sonipat, Haryana 131001, India
Summary
We examine shifts in the conduct of monetary policy in India, before and after the adoption of inflation targeting (IT), while also accounting for the impact of COVID-19. Unlike existing studies that pre-date COVID-19, we employ a unified framework using a time-varying BVAR model with data spanning 1998 to 2024. We find that, prior to IT, contractionary monetary policy had a limited impact on inflation with presence of a price puzzle. In contrast, the IT period exhibits improved monetary policy transmission, with policy shocks exerting a stronger influence on inflation with the price puzzle disappearing, reflecting enhanced policy credibility. However, this effect weakens during the COVID-19 years. Interestingly, monetary policy had greater influence on the output gap and exchange rate in the pre-IT period, with diminished effects during IT and COVID-19 period. These findings underscore the effectiveness of inflation targeting in improving the transmission of monetary policy in India, though it shows limitations during COVID-19.
Published in: Economic Modelling
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