In this article, the authors investigate the transmission of price volatility in cotton markets across different countries. By analyzing cross-border volatility spillovers, the study explores how fluctuations in one country’s cotton prices can impact others, shedding light on the interconnectedness of global commodity markets.
Authors
Tarun K. Soni, Finance Area, FORE School of Management, New Delhi, India.
Vikas Pandey, Finance Area, FORE School of Management, New Delhi, India.
Priti Aggarwal, Assistant Professor, Jindal Global Business School, O.P. Jindal Global University, Sonipat, India.
Summary
Purpose: The paper analyzes the volatility transmission within the cotton markets by utilizing commodity futures prices from the USA, China and India, encompassing important global events that have significantly influenced the global cotton markets, like the China-USA trade dispute, the COVID-19 outbreak and the Russia–Ukraine conflict.
Design/methodology/approach: The authors employ a volatility spillover measure developed by Diebold and Yilmaz (2009, 2012, 2014). Additionally, the methodology proposed by Baruník and Křehlík (2018), which divides the overall volatility spillover into short, medium and long-term segments has been used. To investigate the volatility connectedness, weekly (close-to-close) returns of the cotton futures contracts that are traded on the Chicago Board of Trade Dalian Commodity Exchange National Commodity Exchange of India (NCDEX), and Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) are considered.
Findings: The paper identifies the presence of long-term volatility transmission among the three cotton futures markets. It demonstrates that a global shock like the Russia–Ukraine conflict has a greater impact on volatility in other markets than USA–China trade disputes. It also highlights the weakening role of the US cotton futures markets as a price leader for Indian and Chinese markets.
Research limitations/implications: Since only three major markets have been studied, the future studies can explore the interconnectedness by including other important markets including Brazil, Turkey, Bangladesh, etc. Further, the moderating role of relationship between other important variables such as cotton production, harvest, inventory, exchange rate, oil price, trade policies, etc. can be examined. Furthermore, the interconnectedness with the regional spot markets in India can also be examined to study how the volatility from the futures market can affect the volatility in the spot markets and vice-versa.
Practical implications: The understanding of domestic food price volatility and its transmission from international to domestic markets is crucial for designing effective policies to address excessive volatility and protect vulnerable groups like producers, consumers, etc.
Social implications: The findings emphasize on the substantial market dependence with the US and the Chinese markets which have a significant impact on the Indian markets with considerable implications for hedgers, producers and exporters, particularly during periods of higher volatility.
Originality/value: This study assesses the interdependencies among three major cotton-producing countries and the influence of factors like the USA–China trade tensions in 2018, the COVID-19 crisis and the Russia–Ukraine conflict in order to gauge the degree of volatility interconnection among these key players in the cotton market.
Published in: Journal of Advances in Management Research
To read the full article, please click here.
