How long will Israel fight in Lebanon? Will it reoccupy southern Lebanon as it once did against Yasser Arafat and his guerrilla war in 1982?
Author
Khinvraj Jangid, Associate Professor and Director, Centre for Israel Studies, Jindal School of International Affairs, OP Jindal Global University, Sonipat, Haryana, India.
Summary
Since October 8, Hezbollah has been continuously launching rockets at Israel, in support of Hamas. With this act, Hezbollah broke away from the UN-mediated ceasefire agreement of 2006, which it was signatory to. This is not surprising.
After Israel’s unilateral withdrawal from south Lebanon in 2000, it was clear there was no immediate national interest or territory occupied in Lebanon. Yet Hezbollah, backed by Iran, did not drop its hostility against Israel. The group’s ideological-religious goal has now dragged the people of Lebanon into a war of attrition, in which they have nothing to gain.
In Lebanon, Hezbollah caters to the needs and wants of the Shia community, which is 31% of the population, to the detriment of others. Its armed militia threatens the official Lebanese national army which, since the ceasefire agreement of 2006, has been trained by the U.S. and the West as a professional and modern armed force for Lebanon. Heba Saleh, the Cairo-based correspondent for the Financial Times, reports how the Lebanon army stays on the sidelines in the current Israel-Hezbollah war, wishing sotto voce that Hezbollah will be destroyed and unable to recover as an armed group after this round of fighting with Israel.
Whether Israel feels it is fighting a legitimate war against Hezbollah and Iran, the real question remains: what after the military strikes? How long will Israel fight in Lebanon? Will it reoccupy southern Lebanon as it once did against Yasser Arafat and his guerilla war in 1982?
Published in: Gateway House: Indian Council on Global Relations
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