Only those countries which have an efficient State, which is uncontested and which creates an enabling policy environment, have a bright future.
Author
Mohan Kumar, Professor & Dean, Strategic and International Initiatives, O.P. Jindal Global University, Sonipat, Haryana, India.
Summary
Key megatrends shaping the future include state efficiency, rising inequality, moral decline, climate failure, geopolitical tensions, and global instability.
With the world witnessing cascading strategic turbulence, it is sometimes easy to miss the important megatrends playing out. Here is an attempt to list the most important megatrends which will have a lasting impact on our lives in this century and the next.
One, the State will play an inordinately crucial role in determining whether countries succeed or not. Only those countries which have an efficient State, which is uncontested and which creates an enabling policy environment, have a bright future. Countries which have an inefficient, corrupt and contested State are at a severe disadvantage in today’s world characterised by resilient supply chains and strong regulation of critical minerals, Artificial Intelligence and quantum computing.
This year’s Nobel Prize for economics has gone to Daron Acemoglu and James Robinson who presciently wrote a book entitled, Why Nations Fail. Their thesis is simple yet powerful. It is the quality of institutions in a country that are decisive. Emerging countries need to take note and assess the quality of the judiciary, bureaucracy, central bank etc that they have and take proper remedial measures.
Two, the world is becoming more and more unequal. Today, 71% of the world’s population lives in countries where inequality is rampant. The average income of people living in North America is 16 times higher than that of people living in sub-Saharan Africa. This degree of inequality is not just unsustainable; it is actually a recipe for economic and social strife.
Published in: Hindustan Times
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